Synthesis of quantitative and qualitative evidence for accident analysis in risk-based highway planning

• Published in: Accident analysis and prevention 2006-09, Vol.38 (5), p.925-935
• Main Authors: Lambert, James H., Peterson, Kenneth D., Joshi, Nilesh N.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accident analysis; Accidents, Traffic - prevention & control; Accidents, Traffic - statistics & numerical data; Crash rate; Decision Making; Humans; Motor Vehicles; Multi-criteria decision-making; Multiobjective combinatorial optimization; Risk Assessment; Transportation planning
• ISSN: 0001-4575; 1879-2057
• DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2006.03.003

Accident analysis involves the use of both quantitative and qualitative data in decision-making. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the synthesis of relevant quantitative and qualitative evidence for accident analysis and for planning a large and diverse portfolio of highway investment projects. The proposed analysis and visualization techniques along with traditional mathematical modeling serve as an aid to planners, engineers, and the public in comparing the benefits of current and proposed improvement projects. The analysis uses data on crash rates, average daily traffic, cost estimates from highway agency databases, and project portfolios for regions and localities. It also utilizes up to two motivations out of seven that are outlined in the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21). Three case studies demonstrate the risk-based approach to accident analysis for short- and long-range transportation plans. The approach is adaptable to other topics in accident analysis and prevention that involve the use of quantitative and qualitative evidence, risk analysis, and multi-criteria decision-making for project portfolio selection.