Flooding in the future : predicting climate change, risks and responses in urban areas

Engineering infrastructure is provided at high cost and is expected to have a useful operational life of decades. However, it is clear that the future is uncertain. Traditional approaches to designing and operating urban storm drainage assets have relied on past performance of natural systems and th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Water science and technology 2005-01, Vol.52 (5), p.265-273
Main Authors: ASHLEY, R. M, BALMFORTH, D. J, SAUL, A. J, BLANSKBY, J. D
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Buildings. Public works
Cities
Climate
Climate change
Climate effects
Disasters
Drainage facilities
Drainage systems
Engineering
Environmental risk
Europe
Exact sciences and technology
Flood management
Flood predictions
Flooding
Forecasting
Modelling
Rain
Risk
Risk Assessment
Risk management
Sewerage. Sewer construction
Social Conditions
Storm runoff
Storms
System effectiveness
Urban areas
Waste Disposal, Fluid - methods
Weather patterns
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Summary:Engineering infrastructure is provided at high cost and is expected to have a useful operational life of decades. However, it is clear that the future is uncertain. Traditional approaches to designing and operating urban storm drainage assets have relied on past performance of natural systems and the ability to extrapolate this performance, together with that of the assets across the usable lifetime. Whether or not climate change is going to significantly alter future weather patterns in Europe, it is clear that it is now incumbent on designers and operators of storm drainage systems to prepare for greater uncertainty in the effectiveness of storm drainage systems. A recent U.K. Government study considered the potential effects of climate and socio-economic change in the U.K. in terms of four future scenarios and what the implications are for the performance of existing storm drainage facilities. In this paper the modelling that was undertaken to try to quantify the changes in risk, together with the effectiveness of responses in managing that risk, are described. It shows that flood risks may increase by a factor of almost 30 times and that traditional engineering measures alone are unlikely to be able to provide protection.
ISSN:0273-1223
1996-9732
DOI:10.2166/wst.2005.0142