climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variabili...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2006-08, Vol.103 (35), p.13116-13120
Main Authors: Scholze, M, Knorr, W, Arnell, N.W, Prentice, I.C
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmosphere - chemistry
Atmospheric models
Biological Sciences
Boreal forests
Carbon - analysis
Climate change
Climate models
deforestation
Ecosystem
Ecosystem models
Ecosystems
Environmental impact
forest damage
forest ecology
Forest ecosystems
forest hydrology
forested watersheds
forests
Freshwater ecosystems
Global climate models
Global warming
Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse gases
Marine ecosystems
Meteorology
Models, Theoretical
Physical Sciences
Risk Assessment
runoff
Terrestrial ecosystems
Trees - physiology
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Summary:We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: 3°C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50°N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming >3°C than for 3°C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.0601816103