Phase- and density-dependent population dynamics in Norwegian lemmings: interaction between deterministic and stochastic processes

We analysed two 26-year long (1970 to 1995) time-series on annual population growth rates of Norwegian lemmings (Lemmus lemmus) from Finse, south Norway, using a threshold autoregressive (TAR) approach. We demonstrate that the population dynamics is both phase- and density-dependent. The phase-depen...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the Royal Society. B, Biological sciences Biological sciences, 1998-10, Vol.265 (1409), p.1957-1968
Main Authors: Stenseth, N. C., Chan, K., Framstad, E., Tong, H.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Arvicolinae
Chaos theory
Continuous Tar Models
Determinism
Deterministic Processes
Dynamic Stability Analysis
Ecological modeling
Ecosystem
Lemmus lemmus
Microtine Population Cycles
Modeling
Models, Biological
Nonlinear Dynamics
Norway
Parametric models
Population Density
Population Dynamics
Population ecology
Predation
Rodents
Stochastic Processes
Voles
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:We analysed two 26-year long (1970 to 1995) time-series on annual population growth rates of Norwegian lemmings (Lemmus lemmus) from Finse, south Norway, using a threshold autoregressive (TAR) approach. We demonstrate that the population dynamics is both phase- and density-dependent. The phase-dependence accounts for the observed nonlinearity. We used the deduced stochastic model structure as a basis for evaluating the dynamic properties of this system. The dynamics is characterized either by limit cycles or chaos (the latter with a strong semi-periodic component). Stochasticity is seen to play an important role in the determination of the periodicity. The ecological implications of these statistical and mathematical results are discussed.
ISSN:0962-8452
1471-2954
DOI:10.1098/rspb.1998.0526