dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth disease: I. Model description

A dynamic optimization model was developed and used to evaluate alternative foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies. The model chose daily control strategies of depopulation and vaccination that minimized total regional cost for the entire epidemic duration, given disease dynamics and resour...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Preventive veterinary medicine 2007-05, Vol.79 (2-4), p.257-273
Main Authors: Kobayashi, M, Carpenter, T.E, Dickey, B.F, Howitt, R.E
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
California
Cattle
Cattle Diseases - prevention & control
Cattle Diseases - transmission
Computer Simulation
Cost-Benefit Analysis
culling (animals)
disease models
disease outbreaks
Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control
Disease Outbreaks - veterinary
disease transmission
dynamic models
economic analysis
economic costs
Euthanasia, Animal - methods
foot-and-mouth disease
Foot-and-Mouth Disease - prevention & control
Foot-and-Mouth Disease - transmission
Goat Diseases - prevention & control
Goat Diseases - transmission
Goats
livestock
Models, Biological
optimization
Sheep
Sheep Diseases - prevention & control
Sheep Diseases - transmission
simulation models
Swine
Swine Diseases - prevention & control
Swine Diseases - transmission
vaccination
Vaccination - economics
Vaccination - methods
Vaccination - veterinary
viral diseases of animals and humans
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Description
Summary:A dynamic optimization model was developed and used to evaluate alternative foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies. The model chose daily control strategies of depopulation and vaccination that minimized total regional cost for the entire epidemic duration, given disease dynamics and resource constraints. The disease dynamics and the impacts of control strategies on these dynamics were characterized in a set of difference equations; effects of movement restrictions on the disease dynamics were also considered. The model was applied to a three-county region in the Central Valley of California; the epidemic relationships were parameterized and validated using the information obtained from an FMD simulation model developed for the same region. The optimization model enables more efficient searches for desirable control strategies by considering all strategies simultaneously, providing the simulation model with optimization results to direct it in generating detailed predictions of potential FMD outbreaks.
ISSN:0167-5877
1873-1716
DOI:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.01.002