Biosurveillance of ED visits for gastroenteritis

Abstract Objective Our objective was to characterize emergency department (ED) visits for gastroenteritis by season and age and develop a predictive model. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients seen in 19 EDs from 1988 to 2002. We examined differences in the annual peaks of y...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The American journal of emergency medicine 2007-06, Vol.25 (5), p.535-539
Main Authors: Rodriguez, Vashun A., MD, MPH, Silverman, Michael E., MD, Cochrane, Dennis G., MD, Eskin, Barnet, MD, PhD, Ohman-Strickland, Pamela, PhD, Rothman, Jonathan, MBA, R. Allegra, John, MD, PhD
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adolescent
Adult
Age Factors
Anesthesia. Intensive care medicine. Transfusions. Cell therapy and gene therapy
Biological and medical sciences
Bioterrorism
Child
Child, Preschool
Disease Outbreaks
Economic models
Emergency
Emergency medical care
Emergency Service, Hospital - utilization
Female
Gastroenteritis
Gastroenteritis - epidemiology
General aspects
Human viral diseases
Humans
Incidence
Infant
Infectious diseases
Intensive care medicine
Male
Medical sciences
New Jersey - epidemiology
Older people
Planification. Prevention (methods). Intervention. Evaluation
Population Surveillance
Prediction models
Public health. Hygiene
Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine
Regression Analysis
Retrospective Studies
Seasons
Studies
Time series
Viral diseases
Viral diseases with cutaneous or mucosal lesions and viral diseases of the eye
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Summary:Abstract Objective Our objective was to characterize emergency department (ED) visits for gastroenteritis by season and age and develop a predictive model. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients seen in 19 EDs from 1988 to 2002. We examined differences in the annual peaks of younger (60 months) age groups and developed a time series regression model. Results Of the 5 182 019 total visits, 88 504 were for gastroenteritis. On average, the percentage of gastroenteritis on the peak days was higher in the younger (26%) than older group (4%), and the peaks for the younger group occurred 36 days after those for the older group. Conclusion Emergency department visits for gastroenteritis vary greatly by season and age. Our time series predictive model was a good fit to actual incidence patterns. These variations should be accounted for in designing a system to detect bioterrorism and for surveillance of naturally occurring epidemics.
ISSN:0735-6757
1532-8171
DOI:10.1016/j.ajem.2006.09.017