Application of Sartwell's Model (Lognormal Distribution of Incubation Periods) to Age at Onset and Age at Death of Foals with Rhodococcus equi Pneumonia as Evidence of Perinatal Infection

The distributions of the incubation periods for infectious and neoplastic diseases originating from point‐source exposures, and for genetic diseases, follow a lognormal distribution (Sartwell's model). Conversely, incubation periods in propagated outbreaks and diseases with strong environmental...

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Published in:Journal of veterinary internal medicine 2001-05, Vol.15 (3), p.171-175
Main Authors: Horowitz, Miriam L., Cohen, Noah D., Takai, Shinji, Becu, Teotimu, Chaffin, M. Keith, Chu, Karin K., Magdesian, K. Gary, Martens, Ronald J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Actinomycetales Infections - mortality
Actinomycetales Infections - transmission
Actinomycetales Infections - veterinary
Animals
Animals, Newborn
Argentina - epidemiology
California - epidemiology
Epidemiology
Female
Horse Diseases - mortality
Horse Diseases - transmission
Horses
Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical - veterinary
Japan - epidemiology
Models, Statistical
Natural history
Pneumonia, Bacterial - mortality
Pneumonia, Bacterial - transmission
Pneumonia, Bacterial - veterinary
Pregnancy
Rhodococcus equi
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Summary:The distributions of the incubation periods for infectious and neoplastic diseases originating from point‐source exposures, and for genetic diseases, follow a lognormal distribution (Sartwell's model). Conversely, incubation periods in propagated outbreaks and diseases with strong environmental components do not follow a lognormal distribution. In this study Sartwell's model was applied to the age at onset and age at death of foals with Rhodococcus equi pneumonia. The age at onset of clinical signs and age at death were compiled for 107 foals that had been diagnosed with R equi pneumonia at breeding farms in Argentina and Japan. For each outcome (disease and death), these data followed a lognormal distribution. A group of 115 foals with colic from the University of California were used as a comparison group. The age at onset of clinical signs for these foals did not follow a lognormal distribution. These results were consistent with the hypothesis that foals are infected with R equi during the 1st several days of life, similar to a point‐source exposure.
ISSN:0891-6640
1939-1676
DOI:10.1111/j.1939-1676.2001.tb02307.x