On stochastic logistic population growth models with immigration and multiple births

• Published in: Theoretical population biology 2004-02, Vol.65 (1), p.89-104
• Main Authors: Matis, James H., Kiffe, Thomas R.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Animal Migration; Animals; Birth–death process; Carnivora; Differential equations; Foxes; Litter Size; Moment closure methods; Multiple Birth Offspring - statistics & numerical data; Population Growth; Population growth model; Saddlepoint approximations; Stochastic Processes
• ISSN: 0040-5809; 1096-0325
• DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2003.08.003

This paper develops a stochastic logistic population growth model with immigration and multiple births. The differential equations for the low-order cumulant functions (i.e., mean, variance, and skewness) of the single birth model are reviewed, and the corresponding equations for the multiple birth model are derived. Accurate approximate solutions for the cumulant functions are obtained using moment closure methods for two families of model parameterizations, one for badger and the other for fox population growth. For both model families, the equilibrium size distribution may be approximated well using the Normal approximation, and even more accurately using the saddlepoint approximation. It is shown that in comparison with the corresponding single birth model, the multiple birth mechanism increases the skewness and the variance of the equilibrium distribution, but slightly reduces its mean. Moreover, the type of density-dependent population control is shown to influence the sign of the skewness and the size of the variance.