Smoothing a discrete hazard function for the number of patients colonized with Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus in an intensive care unit

A new method for estimating the time to colonization of Methicillin‐resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) patients is developed in this paper. The time to colonization of MRSA is modelled using a Bayesian smoothing approach for the hazard function. There are two prior models discussed in this paper...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Statistics in medicine 2004-04, Vol.23 (8), p.1247-1258
Main Authors: Ismail, Noor Azina, Pettitt, A. N.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayes Theorem
Bayesian
colonization
Colony Count, Microbial
discrete hazard function
generalized linear mixed model
Humans
Intensive Care Units - utilization
Length of Stay
Linear Models
Methicillin Resistance
Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus
Models, Statistical
Proportional Hazards Models
smoothing
Staphylococcal Infections - microbiology
Staphylococcus aureus
Staphylococcus aureus - cytology
Staphylococcus aureus - drug effects
Statistics, Nonparametric
Survival Analysis
Time Factors
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Summary:A new method for estimating the time to colonization of Methicillin‐resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) patients is developed in this paper. The time to colonization of MRSA is modelled using a Bayesian smoothing approach for the hazard function. There are two prior models discussed in this paper: the first difference prior and the second difference prior. The second difference prior model gives smoother estimates of the hazard functions and, when applied to data from an intensive care unit (ICU), clearly shows increasing hazard up to day 13, then a decreasing hazard. The results clearly demonstrate that the hazard is not constant and provide a useful quantification of the effect of length of stay on the risk of MRSA colonization which provides useful insight. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
ISSN:0277-6715
1097-0258
DOI:10.1002/sim.1654