Assessing the Accuracy of Polls and Surveys

Direct measurements of public opinion about national affairs appear with increasing frequency in all of the mass media. While such survey results are often flagged with statements as to expected error margins, discrepancies between multiple surveys in the news at the same time on what seem to be the...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 1986-11, Vol.234 (4780), p.1094-1098
Main Authors: Converse, Philip E., Traugott, Michael W.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
Analysis
Error rates
Opinion Polls
Political campaigns
Polls
Polls & surveys
Public opinion
Public opinion polls
Public Opinion Research
Research Design Error
Response rates
Sampling (Statistics)
Sampling errors
Social research
Statistical sampling
Surveys
Surveys (Studies)
Telephones
Voting
Warnings
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Description
Summary:Direct measurements of public opinion about national affairs appear with increasing frequency in all of the mass media. While such survey results are often flagged with statements as to expected error margins, discrepancies between multiple surveys in the news at the same time on what seem to be the same topics may convince casual consumers that such error margins must be considerably understated. A brief review of the several sources of variability and fixed bias in such surveys provides a clearer frame of reference for the evaluation of such data.
ISSN:0036-8075
1095-9203
DOI:10.1126/science.234.4780.1094