Predicting Future Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels

Results from different models for the natural carbon dioxide cycle are compared. Special emphasis is given to the type of ocean modeling (diffusive deepsea or two-box ocean), behavior of the biosphere, and value of the oceanic buffer factor against carbon dixoide uptake. According to the most probab...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 1978-01, Vol.199 (4327), p.388-395
Main Authors: Siegenthaler, U., Oeschger, H.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospherics
Biosphere
Carbon dioxide
Climate models
Diffusion coefficient
Fossil fuels
Oceans
Parametric models
Radiocarbon
Seas
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Summary:Results from different models for the natural carbon dioxide cycle are compared. Special emphasis is given to the type of ocean modeling (diffusive deepsea or two-box ocean), behavior of the biosphere, and value of the oceanic buffer factor against carbon dixoide uptake. According to the most probable models, the fraction of the cumulative production remaining airborne will be between 46 and 80 percent 100 years from now for any realistic assumptions concerning future carbon dioxide production. For a prescribed maximum increase of 50 percent above the pre-industrial carbon dioxide level, the production could grow by about 50 percent until the beginning of the next century, but should then decrease rapidly.
ISSN:0036-8075
1095-9203
DOI:10.1126/science.199.4327.388