Impact of the demerit point system on road traffic accident mortality in Spain

BackgroundTo assess the effect of the Demerit Point System (DPS), introduced in Spain on 1 July 2006, on the number of fatalities due to road traffic accidents, using a methodology that controls for the seasonal variation and trend in the data series.MethodsTime-series analysis by ARIMA models of 29...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of epidemiology and community health (1979) 2010-03, Vol.64 (3), p.274-276
Main Authors: Pulido, José, Lardelli, Pablo, de la Fuente, Luis, Flores, Víctor M, Vallejo, Fernando, Regidor, Enrique
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accidents, Traffic - mortality
Accidents, Traffic - prevention & control
Adult
Analysis of Variance
Automobile Driving - legislation & jurisprudence
Automobile Driving - statistics & numerical data
Biological and medical sciences
Demerit points system
Energy consumption
Epidemiology
Fatalities
Female
General aspects
Humans
Male
Medical sciences
Miscellaneous
Mortality
Multivariate Analysis
Public health. Hygiene
Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine
road safety
road traffic accidents
Roads
Roads & highways
Seasonal variations
Spain - epidemiology
time-series
traffic
Traffic accidents & safety
trend series analysis
Trends
Young Adult
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Summary:BackgroundTo assess the effect of the Demerit Point System (DPS), introduced in Spain on 1 July 2006, on the number of fatalities due to road traffic accidents, using a methodology that controls for the seasonal variation and trend in the data series.MethodsTime-series analysis by ARIMA models of 29 113 fatalities in road traffic accidents (at the accident scene or within 24 h thereafter), between January 2000 and December 2007. The model permitted estimation of an intervention parameter, together with its 95% CI, to calculate the number of fatalities that would have occurred if the DPS had not been implemented, after controlling for the effect of other measures introduced in 2004.ResultsIt was estimated that 618 persons (95% CI 259 to 977) would have died in traffic accidents in the 18 months after implementation of the DPS had it not been in effect, which represents a reduction of 14.5% (95% CI 6.1% to 23.0%) from a total of 4252 deaths.ConclusionImplementation of the DPS in Spain has led to a significant reduction in the number of traffic accident deaths in the context of a downward trend after the implementation of the 2004 measures.
ISSN:0143-005X
1470-2738
DOI:10.1136/jech.2008.082461