A model for hormonal control of the menstrual cycle: Structural consistency but sensitivity with regard to data

This study presents a 13-dimensional system of delayed differential equations which predicts serum concentrations of five hormones important for regulation of the menstrual cycle. Parameters for the system are fit to two different data sets for normally cycling women. For these best fit parameter se...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of theoretical biology 2009-10, Vol.260 (4), p.572-580
Main Authors: Selgrade, J.F., Harris, L.A., Pasteur, R.D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bifurcation
Estradiol
Estradiol - blood
Estradiol - physiology
Female
Follicle
Gonadotropins, Pituitary - blood
Gonadotropins, Pituitary - physiology
Humans
Luteinizing Hormone - biosynthesis
Luteinizing Hormone - physiology
Menstrual Cycle - physiology
Models, Biological
Ovarian Follicle - physiology
Ovulation - physiology
Parameter
Polycystic Ovary Syndrome - physiopathology
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Summary:This study presents a 13-dimensional system of delayed differential equations which predicts serum concentrations of five hormones important for regulation of the menstrual cycle. Parameters for the system are fit to two different data sets for normally cycling women. For these best fit parameter sets, model simulations agree well with the two different data sets but one model also has an abnormal stable periodic solution, which may represent polycystic ovarian syndrome. This abnormal cycle occurs for the model in which the normal cycle has estradiol levels at the high end of the normal range. Differences in model behavior are explained by studying hysteresis curves in bifurcation diagrams with respect to sensitive model parameters. For instance, one sensitive parameter is indicative of the estradiol concentration that promotes pituitary synthesis of a large amount of luteinizing hormone, which is required for ovulation. Also, it is observed that models with greater early follicular growth rates may have a greater risk of cycling abnormally.
ISSN:0022-5193
1095-8541
DOI:10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.06.017