Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment: Part 3. Dryland Production of Grain and Forage Crops

Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops--corn, soybeans, and winter wheat--and two for...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climatic change 2005-03, Vol.69 (1), p.43-65
Main Authors: Thomson, Allison M, Brown, Robert A, Rosenberg, Norman J
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adaptation
Agricultural production
Agriculture
Alfalfa
Arid zones
Carbon dioxide
Cereal crops
Climate change
Crop production
Crop yield
Crops
Dryland farming
Environmental impact
Forage
Forage crops
General circulation models
Global temperatures
Grain
Grain crops
Greenhouse effect
Precipitation
Productivity
Rain
Regions
Simulation
Soil erosion
Soybeans
Temperature
Water shortages
Weather
Wheat
Winter
Winter wheat
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Summary:Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops--corn, soybeans, and winter wheat--and two forage crops--alfalfa and clover hay--is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than +/-50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1007/s10584-005-3612-9