Costs of reducing carbon emissions: An integrated modeling framework approach

This paper presents an approach to estimating world-regional carbon mitigation cost functions for the years 2020, 2050, and 2100. The approach explicitly includes uncertainty surrounding such carbon reduction costs. It is based on the analysis of global energy-economy-environment scenarios described...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climatic change 2003-01, Vol.56 (1-2), p.167-184
Main Authors: Gritsevskyi, Andrii, Schrattenholzer, Leo
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Carbon
Carbon dioxide
Climate change
Consumption
Cost control
Cost estimates
Emissions
Emissions control
Energy
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Macroeconomics
Production functions
R&D
Regions
Research & development
Sensitivity analysis
Systems analysis
Systems integration
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Summary:This paper presents an approach to estimating world-regional carbon mitigation cost functions for the years 2020, 2050, and 2100. The approach explicitly includes uncertainty surrounding such carbon reduction costs. It is based on the analysis of global energy-economy-environment scenarios described for the 21st century. We use one baseline scenario and variants thereof to estimate cumulative costs of carbon mitigation as a function of cumulative carbon emission reductions. For our baseline for estimating carbon mitigation cost curves, we use the so-called IIASA F scenario. The F scenario is a high-growth, high-emissions scenario designed specifically to be used as a reference against which to evaluate alternatives. Carbon emissions and energy systems costs in the F scenario are then compared with (reduced) emissions and (higher) costs (including macroeconomic adjustment costs) of alternative scenarios taken from the IIASA scenario database. As a kind of sensitivity analysis of our approach, we also present the results of a scenario involving assumptions on particularly rapid technological progress. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1023/A:1021364008426