Detection of a Human Influence on North American Climate

Several indices of large-scale patterns of surface temperature variation were used to investigate climate change in North America over the 20th century. The observed variability of these indices was simulated well by a number of climate models. Comparison of index trends in observations and model si...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2003-11, Vol.302 (5648), p.1200-1203
Main Authors: Karoly, David J., Braganza, Karl, Stott, Peter A., Arblaster, Julie M., Meehl, Gerald A., Broccoli, Anthony J., Dixon, Keith W.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aerosols
Air pollution
Climate
Climate change
Climate models
Climatic changes
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Computer simulation
Earth, ocean, space
Earthquakes
Environmental aspects
Environmental impact assessments
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Gases
Global climate models
Global warming
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Indexes
Meteorology
Modeling
Sea ice
Simulations
Sulfates
Surface temperature
Temperature gradients
Variability
Variations
Velocity
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Summary:Several indices of large-scale patterns of surface temperature variation were used to investigate climate change in North America over the 20th century. The observed variability of these indices was simulated well by a number of climate models. Comparison of index trends in observations and model simulations shows that North American temperature changes from 1950 to 1999 were unlikely to be due to natural climate variation alone. Observed trends over this period are consistent with simulations that include anthropogenic forcing from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. However, most of the observed warming from 1900 to 1949 was likely due to natural climate variation.
ISSN:0036-8075
1095-9203
DOI:10.1126/science.1089159