Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America

How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2007-05, Vol.316 (5828), p.1181-1184
Main Authors: Seager, Richard, Ting, Mingfang, Held, Isaac, Kushnir, Yochanan, Lu, Jian, Vecchi, Gabriel, Huang, Huei-Ping, Harnik, Nili, Leetmaa, Ants, Lau, Ngar-Cheung, Li, Cuihua, Velez, Jennifer, Naik, Naomi
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Arid zones
Atmospheric circulation
Atmospheric models
Atmospheric moisture
Atmospherics
Climate
Climate change
Climate models
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Desertification
Drought
Drying
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Humidity
Meteorology
Temperate regions
Water in the atmosphere (humidity, clouds, evaporation, precipitation)
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Summary:How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.
ISSN:0036-8075
1095-9203
DOI:10.1126/science.1139601