Emission Factors Determination of Euro III 1,200- to 1,400-cc Petrol Passenger Cars with a PLS Multivariate Regression Model

• Published in: Environmental modeling & assessment 2008-09, Vol.13 (3), p.383-392
• Main Authors: Rapone, M, Prati, M. V, Costagliola, M. A, Della Ragione, L, Meccariello, G
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air pollution; Applications of Mathematics; ARTEMIS; Automobiles; Carbon dioxide; Driving ability; Earth and Environmental Science; Emission factors; Emission measurements; Emissions; Energy consumption; Environment; Environmental monitoring; Gasoline; Hierarchical statistical model; Indexing in process; Kinematics; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Mathematical Modeling and Industrial Mathematics; Mathematical models; Motor vehicles; Operations Research/Decision Theory; Partial least squares (PLS); Q1; Scale models; Statistical analysis; Statistical models; Studies; Traffic assignment; Vehicles; Velocity
• ISSN: 1420-2026; 1573-2967
• DOI: 10.1007/s10666-007-9108-4

This paper presents emission factors of a class of passenger cars obtained by applying a statistical model developed to evaluate average emission factors based on driving cycle emission measurements. A multivariate regression method based on principal components, namely, the partial least squares (PLS) method, is applied to calculate the model. The method was applied to emission data from a sample of petrol Euro III 1,200- to 1,400-cc passenger cars taken from the ARTEMIS database. A vehicle effect analysis showed that vehicle effect is considerable, in some cases comparable to or greater than the driving cycle effect. Determination of emission factors is obviously affected by these aspects. Thus, the CO2 PLS model fit results are good, CO, HC and NOX more or less sufficient. PLS-predicted quantities were compared with corresponding quantities estimated by a multiple regression model (GLM) based on a quadratic polynomial equation of sub-cycle overall mean speed. GLM goodness of fit was poorer than PLS ones. A validation effort of models is in progress, which is considering the ARTEMIS database extended with tests performed within other national or international projects. In this way, an extended population of combinations of vehicles and driving cycles will provide a better calculation of models and emission factors.