Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain

The foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in British livestock remains an ongoing cause for concern, with new cases still arising in previously unaffected areas. Epidemiological analyses have been vital in delivering scientific advice to government on effective control measures. Using disease, culli...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature (London) 2001-10, Vol.413 (6855), p.542-548
Main Authors: Ferguson, Neil M, Donnelly, Christl A, Anderson, Roy M
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Biological and medical sciences
Disease control
Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control
Disease Outbreaks - veterinary
Disease spread
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Farms
Foot & mouth disease
Foot-and-Mouth Disease - epidemiology
Foot-and-Mouth Disease - prevention & control
Foot-and-mouth disease virus
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Health Policy
Humanities and Social Sciences
Incidence
letter
Livestock
Livestock farming
Microbiology
multidisciplinary
Risk factors
Science
Seasons
United Kingdom - epidemiology
Virology
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Summary:The foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in British livestock remains an ongoing cause for concern, with new cases still arising in previously unaffected areas. Epidemiological analyses have been vital in delivering scientific advice to government on effective control measures. Using disease, culling and census data on all livestock farms in Great Britain, we analysed the risk factors determining the spatiotemporal evolution of the epidemic and of the impact of control policies on FMD incidence. Here we show that the species mix, animal numbers and the number of distinct land parcels in a farm are central to explaining regional variation in transmission intensity. We use the parameter estimates thus obtained in a dynamical model of disease spread to show that extended culling programmes were essential for controlling the epidemic to the extent achieved, but demonstrate that the epidemic could have been substantially reduced in scale had the most efficient control measures been rigorously applied earlier.
ISSN:0028-0836
1476-4687
DOI:10.1038/35097116