External Control of 20th Century Temperature by Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings

A comparison of observations with simulations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model shows that both natural and anthropogenic factors have contributed significantly to 20th century temperature changes. The model successfully simulates global mean and large-scale land temperature va...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2000-12, Vol.290 (5499), p.2133-2137
Main Authors: Stott, Peter A., Tett, S. F. B., Jones, G. S., Allen, M. R., Mitchell, J. F. B., Jenkins, G. J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aerosols
Analysis
Atmosphere
Climate
Climate change
Climate models
Climatology
Computer based modeling
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics
Environmental scientists
Exact sciences and technology
external forcing
Global temperature changes
Global warming
Greenhouse effect
Land
Modeling
Ocean temperature
Oceans
Pollution, environment geology
Simulations
Stott, Peter A
Sulfates
Temperature
Temperature scales
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Summary:A comparison of observations with simulations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model shows that both natural and anthropogenic factors have contributed significantly to 20th century temperature changes. The model successfully simulates global mean and large-scale land temperature variations, indicating that the climate response on these scales is strongly influenced by external factors. More than 80% of observed multidecadal-scale global mean temperature variations and more than 60% of 10- to 50-year land temperature variations are due to changes in external forcings. Anthropogenic global warming under a standard emissions scenario is predicted to continue at a rate similar to that observed in recent decades.
ISSN:0036-8075
1095-9203
DOI:10.1126/science.290.5499.2133