On Prediction of the Strength of the 11-Year Solar Cycle No. 24

Various forecast techniques have been analyzed with reference to solar activity cycle 24. Three prediction indices have been proposed: the intensity of the polar field, the mean field at the source surface, and a recurrence index of geomagnetic disturbances. As a rule, the forecast based on the pola...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Solar physics 2008-03, Vol.248 (1), p.191-202
Main Authors: Obridko, V. N., Shelting, B. D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Astrophysics and Astroparticles
Atmospheric Sciences
Magnetism
Physics
Physics and Astronomy
Solar activity
Solar physics
Space Exploration and Astronautics
Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics
Studies
Sun
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Summary:Various forecast techniques have been analyzed with reference to solar activity cycle 24. Three prediction indices have been proposed: the intensity of the polar field, the mean field at the source surface, and a recurrence index of geomagnetic disturbances. As a rule, the forecast based on the polar field and extrapolation of local fields gives a height for cycle 24 that is smaller than that of cycle 23. The use of the recurrence index and the global field value leads us to the conclusion that cycle 24 will be medium high: the same as or somewhat higher than cycle 23.
ISSN:0038-0938
1573-093X
DOI:10.1007/s11207-008-9138-3