An Integrated Model of Oil Production

This paper demonstrates that models which combine the physical reserves of oil with economic and regulatory variables provide better forecasts of future production than models based on either reserves or economic variables alone. Four alternative models are specified and estimated. Out-of-sample for...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Energy journal (Cambridge, Mass.) Mass.), 1999-01, Vol.20 (1), p.105-124
Main Authors: Moroney, John R., Berg, M. Douglas
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Commercial production
Economic forecasting models
Economic models
Elasticity
Energy economics
Forecasting
Forecasting models
Forecasts and trends
Investments
Modeling
Natural gas reserves
Oil prices
Oil production
Oil reserves
Petroleum
Petroleum industry
Petroleum production
Production estimates
Profits
Real prices
Refereed Papers
Regulation
Studies
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Summary:This paper demonstrates that models which combine the physical reserves of oil with economic and regulatory variables provide better forecasts of future production than models based on either reserves or economic variables alone. Four alternative models are specified and estimated. Out-of-sample forecasts show that a model combining reserves t lagged production, and the real price of oil performs much better than models based on reserves alone or economic variables alone.
ISSN:0195-6574
1944-9089
DOI:10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No1-6