Loading…
An Integrated Model of Oil Production
This paper demonstrates that models which combine the physical reserves of oil with economic and regulatory variables provide better forecasts of future production than models based on either reserves or economic variables alone. Four alternative models are specified and estimated. Out-of-sample for...
Saved in:
| Published in: | The Energy journal (Cambridge, Mass.) Mass.), 1999-01, Vol.20 (1), p.105-124 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Subjects: | |
| Citations: | Items that this one cites Items that cite this one |
| Online Access: | Get full text |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| cited_by | cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c722t-d84744ea00d2e163f8bb67ce7354b2bdaf67375edbb09f147401b9b90f87b8f73 |
|---|---|
| cites | cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c722t-d84744ea00d2e163f8bb67ce7354b2bdaf67375edbb09f147401b9b90f87b8f73 |
| container_end_page | 124 |
| container_issue | 1 |
| container_start_page | 105 |
| container_title | The Energy journal (Cambridge, Mass.) |
| container_volume | 20 |
| creator | Moroney, John R. Berg, M. Douglas |
| description | This paper demonstrates that models which combine the physical reserves of oil with economic and regulatory variables provide better forecasts of future production than models based on either reserves or economic variables alone. Four alternative models are specified and estimated. Out-of-sample forecasts show that a model combining reserves t lagged production, and the real price of oil performs much better than models based on reserves alone or economic variables alone. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No1-6 |
| format | article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>gale_proqu</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_743711105</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><galeid>A53986517</galeid><jstor_id>41322821</jstor_id><sage_id>10.5547_ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No1-6</sage_id><sourcerecordid>A53986517</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c722t-d84744ea00d2e163f8bb67ce7354b2bdaf67375edbb09f147401b9b90f87b8f73</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNqNkl9v0zAUxSMEEmXwEZAi_ggeMPg6ThxLe6mmAp3GhijwajnJdUiVxsV20PbtcRcoGyoS9oMl63fuub4-SfIM6Os85-LNcrU6pyBzUuSCk8Up-Wp7Rsm5BVLcSWYgOSeSlvJuMttj95MH3q9pXFyUs-T5fEiXQ8DW6YBN-sE22KfWpBddn350thnr0NnhYXLP6N7jo1_nUfLl7eLzyXtydvFueTI_I7VgLJCm5IJz1JQ2DKHITFlVhahRZDmvWNVoU4hM5NhUFZUGIkyhkpWkphRVaUR2lLyY6m6d_T6iD2rT-Rr7Xg9oR68EzwQA0DyST_4i13Z0Q2xOMcbi20CwCD39FwSlEEAZk9mfUq3uUXWDscHpemes5nkmyyKHXWevDkAtDuh0bwc0Xby-iZMDeNwNbrr6EP_yFh-RgJeh1aP3arn6dAs9ntDaWe8dGrV13Ua7KwVU7WKhfsdC7f5bLU7VdSxUjIUqohwmucMt1nutxuF6Nr0CKeWPiFNQmhbqW9hEjZw0Xrd4Y4b_5_d40q59sG7vxyFjrGSQ_QRL0tT1</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>222047172</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>An Integrated Model of Oil Production</title><source>ABI/INFORM Collection</source><source>EBSCOhost Econlit with Full Text</source><source>JSTOR Archival Journals and Primary Sources Collection</source><source>BSC - Ebsco (Business Source Ultimate)</source><creator>Moroney, John R. ; Berg, M. Douglas</creator><creatorcontrib>Moroney, John R. ; Berg, M. Douglas</creatorcontrib><description>This paper demonstrates that models which combine the physical reserves of oil with economic and regulatory variables provide better forecasts of future production than models based on either reserves or economic variables alone. Four alternative models are specified and estimated. Out-of-sample forecasts show that a model combining reserves t lagged production, and the real price of oil performs much better than models based on reserves alone or economic variables alone.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0195-6574</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1944-9089</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No1-6</identifier><identifier>CODEN: ENJODN</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Los Angeles, CA: Energy Economics Education Foundation, Inc</publisher><subject>Commercial production ; Economic forecasting models ; Economic models ; Elasticity ; Energy economics ; Forecasting ; Forecasting models ; Forecasts and trends ; Investments ; Modeling ; Natural gas reserves ; Oil prices ; Oil production ; Oil reserves ; Petroleum ; Petroleum industry ; Petroleum production ; Production estimates ; Profits ; Real prices ; Refereed Papers ; Regulation ; Studies</subject><ispartof>The Energy journal (Cambridge, Mass.), 1999-01, Vol.20 (1), p.105-124</ispartof><rights>Copyright © 1999 International Association for Energy Economics</rights><rights>The Author(s)</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 1999 Sage Publications Ltd. (UK)</rights><rights>Copyright Energy Economics Education Foundation 1999</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c722t-d84744ea00d2e163f8bb67ce7354b2bdaf67375edbb09f147401b9b90f87b8f73</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c722t-d84744ea00d2e163f8bb67ce7354b2bdaf67375edbb09f147401b9b90f87b8f73</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.proquest.com/docview/222047172/fulltextPDF?pq-origsite=primo$$EPDF$$P50$$Gproquest$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.proquest.com/docview/222047172?pq-origsite=primo$$EHTML$$P50$$Gproquest$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,778,782,4012,11671,27906,27907,27908,36043,36044,44346,58221,58454,74646</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://econpapers.repec.org/article/aenjournl/1999v20-01-a06.htm$$DView record in RePEc$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Moroney, John R.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Berg, M. Douglas</creatorcontrib><title>An Integrated Model of Oil Production</title><title>The Energy journal (Cambridge, Mass.)</title><description>This paper demonstrates that models which combine the physical reserves of oil with economic and regulatory variables provide better forecasts of future production than models based on either reserves or economic variables alone. Four alternative models are specified and estimated. Out-of-sample forecasts show that a model combining reserves t lagged production, and the real price of oil performs much better than models based on reserves alone or economic variables alone.</description><subject>Commercial production</subject><subject>Economic forecasting models</subject><subject>Economic models</subject><subject>Elasticity</subject><subject>Energy economics</subject><subject>Forecasting</subject><subject>Forecasting models</subject><subject>Forecasts and trends</subject><subject>Investments</subject><subject>Modeling</subject><subject>Natural gas reserves</subject><subject>Oil prices</subject><subject>Oil production</subject><subject>Oil reserves</subject><subject>Petroleum</subject><subject>Petroleum industry</subject><subject>Petroleum production</subject><subject>Production estimates</subject><subject>Profits</subject><subject>Real prices</subject><subject>Refereed Papers</subject><subject>Regulation</subject><subject>Studies</subject><issn>0195-6574</issn><issn>1944-9089</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>1999</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>M0C</sourceid><recordid>eNqNkl9v0zAUxSMEEmXwEZAi_ggeMPg6ThxLe6mmAp3GhijwajnJdUiVxsV20PbtcRcoGyoS9oMl63fuub4-SfIM6Os85-LNcrU6pyBzUuSCk8Up-Wp7Rsm5BVLcSWYgOSeSlvJuMttj95MH3q9pXFyUs-T5fEiXQ8DW6YBN-sE22KfWpBddn350thnr0NnhYXLP6N7jo1_nUfLl7eLzyXtydvFueTI_I7VgLJCm5IJz1JQ2DKHITFlVhahRZDmvWNVoU4hM5NhUFZUGIkyhkpWkphRVaUR2lLyY6m6d_T6iD2rT-Rr7Xg9oR68EzwQA0DyST_4i13Z0Q2xOMcbi20CwCD39FwSlEEAZk9mfUq3uUXWDscHpemes5nkmyyKHXWevDkAtDuh0bwc0Xby-iZMDeNwNbrr6EP_yFh-RgJeh1aP3arn6dAs9ntDaWe8dGrV13Ua7KwVU7WKhfsdC7f5bLU7VdSxUjIUqohwmucMt1nutxuF6Nr0CKeWPiFNQmhbqW9hEjZw0Xrd4Y4b_5_d40q59sG7vxyFjrGSQ_QRL0tT1</recordid><startdate>19990101</startdate><enddate>19990101</enddate><creator>Moroney, John R.</creator><creator>Berg, M. Douglas</creator><general>Energy Economics Education Foundation, Inc</general><general>SAGE Publications</general><general>International Association for Energy Economics</general><general>Sage Publications Ltd. (UK)</general><general>Oelgeschlager, Gunn & Hain, Publishers</general><scope>DKI</scope><scope>X2L</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>ISR</scope><scope>K30</scope><scope>PAAUG</scope><scope>PAWHS</scope><scope>PAWZZ</scope><scope>PAXOH</scope><scope>PBHAV</scope><scope>PBQSW</scope><scope>PBYQZ</scope><scope>PCIWU</scope><scope>PCMID</scope><scope>PCZJX</scope><scope>PDGRG</scope><scope>PDWWI</scope><scope>PETMR</scope><scope>PFVGT</scope><scope>PGXDX</scope><scope>PIHIL</scope><scope>PISVA</scope><scope>PJCTQ</scope><scope>PJTMS</scope><scope>PLCHJ</scope><scope>PMHAD</scope><scope>PNQDJ</scope><scope>POUND</scope><scope>PPLAD</scope><scope>PQAPC</scope><scope>PQCAN</scope><scope>PQCMW</scope><scope>PQEME</scope><scope>PQHKH</scope><scope>PQMID</scope><scope>PQNCT</scope><scope>PQNET</scope><scope>PQSCT</scope><scope>PQSET</scope><scope>PSVJG</scope><scope>PVMQY</scope><scope>PZGFC</scope><scope>SDSKB</scope><scope>0U~</scope><scope>1-H</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7SP</scope><scope>7TB</scope><scope>7WY</scope><scope>7WZ</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>87Z</scope><scope>88F</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8AF</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8FL</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BEZIV</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>FRNLG</scope><scope>F~G</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K60</scope><scope>K6~</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.-</scope><scope>L.0</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>M0C</scope><scope>M1Q</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQBIZ</scope><scope>PQBZA</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>S0X</scope></search><sort><creationdate>19990101</creationdate><title>An Integrated Model of Oil Production</title><author>Moroney, John R. ; Berg, M. Douglas</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c722t-d84744ea00d2e163f8bb67ce7354b2bdaf67375edbb09f147401b9b90f87b8f73</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>1999</creationdate><topic>Commercial production</topic><topic>Economic forecasting models</topic><topic>Economic models</topic><topic>Elasticity</topic><topic>Energy economics</topic><topic>Forecasting</topic><topic>Forecasting models</topic><topic>Forecasts and trends</topic><topic>Investments</topic><topic>Modeling</topic><topic>Natural gas reserves</topic><topic>Oil prices</topic><topic>Oil production</topic><topic>Oil reserves</topic><topic>Petroleum</topic><topic>Petroleum industry</topic><topic>Petroleum production</topic><topic>Production estimates</topic><topic>Profits</topic><topic>Real prices</topic><topic>Refereed Papers</topic><topic>Regulation</topic><topic>Studies</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Moroney, John R.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Berg, M. Douglas</creatorcontrib><collection>RePEc IDEAS</collection><collection>RePEc</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Gale In Context: Science</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - West</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - International</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - MEA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Midwest</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Northeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Southeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - North Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Southeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - South Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - UK / I</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Canada</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - EMEALA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - North Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - South Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - International</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - International</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - West</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online Segments 1-50</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - APAC</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Midwest</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - MEA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Canada</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - UK / I</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - EMEALA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - APAC</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - Canada</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - West</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - EMEALA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Northeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - Midwest</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - North Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - Northeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - South Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - Southeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - UK / I</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - APAC</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - MEA</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online Segment 43</collection><collection>Global News & ABI/Inform Professional</collection><collection>Trade PRO</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Electronics & Communications Abstracts</collection><collection>Mechanical & Transportation Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection (ProQuest)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (PDF only)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection</collection><collection>Military Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>STEM Database</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Research Library (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Materials Science & Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>AUTh Library subscriptions: ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Business Premium Collection</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Business Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (Corporate)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Research Library Prep</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Business Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Business Collection</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Professional Advanced</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Professional Standard</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection</collection><collection>Military Database</collection><collection>ProQuest research library</collection><collection>Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Database</collection><collection>Research Library (Corporate)</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>One Business (ProQuest)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Business (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>Engineering collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>SIRS Editorial</collection><jtitle>The Energy journal (Cambridge, Mass.)</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Moroney, John R.</au><au>Berg, M. Douglas</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>An Integrated Model of Oil Production</atitle><jtitle>The Energy journal (Cambridge, Mass.)</jtitle><date>1999-01-01</date><risdate>1999</risdate><volume>20</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>105</spage><epage>124</epage><pages>105-124</pages><issn>0195-6574</issn><eissn>1944-9089</eissn><coden>ENJODN</coden><abstract>This paper demonstrates that models which combine the physical reserves of oil with economic and regulatory variables provide better forecasts of future production than models based on either reserves or economic variables alone. Four alternative models are specified and estimated. Out-of-sample forecasts show that a model combining reserves t lagged production, and the real price of oil performs much better than models based on reserves alone or economic variables alone.</abstract><cop>Los Angeles, CA</cop><pub>Energy Economics Education Foundation, Inc</pub><doi>10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No1-6</doi><tpages>20</tpages></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0195-6574 |
| ispartof | The Energy journal (Cambridge, Mass.), 1999-01, Vol.20 (1), p.105-124 |
| issn | 0195-6574 1944-9089 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_743711105 |
| source | ABI/INFORM Collection; EBSCOhost Econlit with Full Text; JSTOR Archival Journals and Primary Sources Collection; BSC - Ebsco (Business Source Ultimate) |
| subjects | Commercial production Economic forecasting models Economic models Elasticity Energy economics Forecasting Forecasting models Forecasts and trends Investments Modeling Natural gas reserves Oil prices Oil production Oil reserves Petroleum Petroleum industry Petroleum production Production estimates Profits Real prices Refereed Papers Regulation Studies |
| title | An Integrated Model of Oil Production |
| url | http://sfxeu10.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/loughborough?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-17T04%3A28%3A46IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-gale_proqu&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=An%20Integrated%20Model%20of%20Oil%20Production&rft.jtitle=The%20Energy%20journal%20(Cambridge,%20Mass.)&rft.au=Moroney,%20John%20R.&rft.date=1999-01-01&rft.volume=20&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=105&rft.epage=124&rft.pages=105-124&rft.issn=0195-6574&rft.eissn=1944-9089&rft.coden=ENJODN&rft_id=info:doi/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No1-6&rft_dat=%3Cgale_proqu%3EA53986517%3C/gale_proqu%3E%3Cgrp_id%3Ecdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c722t-d84744ea00d2e163f8bb67ce7354b2bdaf67375edbb09f147401b9b90f87b8f73%3C/grp_id%3E%3Coa%3E%3C/oa%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=222047172&rft_id=info:pmid/&rft_galeid=A53986517&rft_jstor_id=41322821&rft_sage_id=10.5547_ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No1-6&rfr_iscdi=true |