Long-term forecast of the demographic transition in Japan and Asia

The demographic structure of Asia is expected to change rapidly from around 2020 up to around 2050. Following Japan, which is already at an advanced stage of aging and birthrate decline, China, South Korea, Thailand, and Singapore will also witness a further decline in their birthrates and an aging...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Asian economic policy review 2009-06, Vol.4 (1), p.19-42
Main Authors: Komine, Takao, Kabe, Shigesaburo, Ogawa, Naohiro, Noland, Marcus
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Ageing
Asia
Demographic change
Fertility
Forecasts
Infertility
Japan
Social change
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:The demographic structure of Asia is expected to change rapidly from around 2020 up to around 2050. Following Japan, which is already at an advanced stage of aging and birthrate decline, China, South Korea, Thailand, and Singapore will also witness a further decline in their birthrates and an aging of their populations. Next in line will be the remaining countries of the Association of South-East Asian Nations as well as India. Such changes, accompanied by a decline in the labor force, will not only adversely affect economic growth, but also have a major impact on voting structures, savings rates, and social security systems. Moreover, the process of demographic aging in Asia will be faster than in Japan, and its extent will be substantial, both of which exacerbates the negative effects. On positive side, these trends will give rise to the emergence of new markets. Reprinted by permission of Blackwell Publishing
ISSN:1832-8105
DOI:10.1111/j.1748-3131.2009.01105.x