Using a global climate model to evaluate the influences of water vapor, snow cover and atmospheric aerosol on warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the twenty-first century

We examine trends in climate variables and their interrelationships over the Tibetan Plateau using global climate model simulations to elucidate the mechanisms for the pattern of warming observed over the plateau during the latter half of the twentieth century and to investigate the warming trend du...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climate dynamics 2010-05, Vol.34 (6), p.859-872
Main Authors: Rangwala, Imtiaz, Miller, James R, Russell, Gary L, Xu, Ming
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aerosols
Atmospheric aerosols
Atmospheric models
Climate change
Climate models
Climatology
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Downward longwave
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Geophysics/Geodesy
Global climate
Global climate model
Global warming
High elevation
Humidity
Meteorology
Oceanography
Snow
Snow cover
Solar radiation
Specific humidity
Spring
Tibetan Plateau
Water vapor
Winter
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Summary:We examine trends in climate variables and their interrelationships over the Tibetan Plateau using global climate model simulations to elucidate the mechanisms for the pattern of warming observed over the plateau during the latter half of the twentieth century and to investigate the warming trend during the twenty-first century under the SRES A1B scenario. Our analysis suggests a 4°C warming over the plateau between 1950 and 2100. The largest warming rates occur during winter and spring. For the 1961-2000 period, the simulated warming is similar to the observed trend over the plateau. Moreover, the largest warming occurs at the highest elevation sites between 1950 and 2100. We find that increases in (1) downward longwave radiation (DLR) influenced by increases in surface specific humidity (q), and (2) absorbed solar radiation (ASR) influenced by decreases in snow cover extent are, in part, the reason for a large warming trend over the plateau, particularly during winter and spring. Furthermore, elevation-based increases in DLR (influenced by q) and ASR (influenced by snow cover and atmospheric aerosols) appear to affect the elevation dependent warming trend simulated in the model.
ISSN:0930-7575
1432-0894
DOI:10.1007/s00382-009-0564-1