RBF-based model with an information processor for forecasting hourly reservoir inflow during typhoons

• Published in: Hydrological processes 2009-12, Vol.23 (25), p.3598-3609
• Main Authors: Lin, Gwo-Fong, Wu, Ming-Chang, Chen, Guo-Rong, Tsai, Fei-Yu
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; fully-supervised learning; Hydrology. Hydrogeology; information processor; radial basis function; reservoir inflow forecasting; typhoon characteristics
• ISSN: 0885-6087; 1099-1085
• DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7471

Inflow forecasting is essential for decision making on reservoir operation during typhoons. In this paper, a radial basis function (RBF)-based model with an information processor is proposed for more accurate forecasts of hourly reservoir inflow. Firstly, based on the multilayer perceptron neural (MLP) network, an information processor is developed to pre-process the typhoon information (namely, typhoon characteristics and rainfall) and to produce forecasts of rainfall. The forecasted rainfall and the observed inflow are then used as input to the RBF-based model, which is a nonlinear function approximator, to produce forecasts of hourly inflow. For parameter estimation of the RBF-based model, the fully-supervised learning algorithm is used. Actual applications of the proposed model are performed to yield 1- to 6-h ahead forecasts of inflow. To assess the improvement due to the use of the typhoon information processor, models without the typhoon information processor are constructed and compared with the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model performs the best and is capable of providing improved forecasts of hourly inflow, especially for long lead-time. In conclusion, the proposed model with a typhoon information processor can extract useful information from typhoon characteristics and rainfall, and consequently improve the forecasting performance. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.