Modeling the Driving Forces of the Land Use and Land Cover Changes Along the Upper Yangtze River of China

• Published in: Environmental management (New York) 2010-03, Vol.45 (3), p.454-465
• Main Authors: Yin, Run Sheng, Xiang, Qing, Xu, Jin Tao, Deng, Xiang Zheng
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agricultural land; Agriculture; Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; China; Commodities; Computer Simulation; Conservation of Natural Resources - methods; Decisions; Deforestation; Earth and Environmental Science; Ecology; Economic growth; Economics; Ecosystem; Environment; Environmental impact; Environmental Management; Environmental protection; Environmental restoration; Food; Forest protection; Forestry; Forestry Management; Freshwater; Grasslands; Habitat loss; Human Activities; Humans; Industrial development; Land cover; Land use; Marketing; Models, Theoretical; Nature Conservation; Policies; Population density; Population growth; Resource exploitation; River basins; Rivers; Soil; Soil erosion; Sustainable use; Time Factors; Wage & price controls; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Movements; Water Pollution Control
• ISSN: 0364-152X; 1432-1009
• DOI: 10.1007/s00267-009-9377-6

Induced by high population density, rapid but uneven economic growth, and historic resource exploitation, China's upper Yangtze basin has witnessed remarkable changes in land use and cover, which have resulted in severe environmental consequences, such as flooding, soil erosion, and habitat loss. This article examines the causes of land use and land cover change (LUCC) along the Jinsha River, one primary section of the upper Yangtze, aiming to better understand the human impact on the dynamic LUCC process and to support necessary policy actions for more sustainable land use and environmental protection. Using a repeated cross-sectional dataset covering 31 counties over four time periods from 1975 to 2000, we develop a fractional logit model to empirically determine the effects of socioeconomic and institutional factors on changes for cropland, forestland, and grassland. It is shown that population expansion, food self-sufficiency, and better market access drove cropland expansion, while industrial development contributed significantly to the increase of forestland and the decrease of other land uses. Similarly, stable tenure had a positive effect on forest protection. Moreover, past land use decisions were less significantly influenced by distorted market signals. We believe that these and other findings carry important policy implications.