Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium

We investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder period, just like Zhang et al. (Clim Change 76:459-477, 2006) found for China. This relatio...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climatic change 2010-03, Vol.99 (1-2), p.65-79
Main Authors: Tol, Richard S. J, Wagner, Sebastian
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural production
Atmospheric Sciences
Bgi / Prodig
Climate
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Cold
Correlation
Datasets
Drought
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Global warming
Historical geography
Historical section
Hypotheses
Meteorology
Migration
Precipitation
Reconstruction
Sea level
Social conflict
Temperature
Violence
War
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Summary:We investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder period, just like Zhang et al. (Clim Change 76:459-477, 2006) found for China. This relationship weakens in the industrialized era, and is not robust to the details of the climate reconstruction or to the sample period. As the correlation is negative and weakening, it appears that global warming would not lead to an increase in violent conflict in temperature climates.
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1007/s10584-009-9659-2