Multiyear variability of thermal atmospheric conditions in the northeastern part of the Black Sea within the actual boundaries of the spring and fall seasons

To estimating the multiyear variability of thermal conditions in the spring and fall transitional seasons, an alternative model of the actual transitional seasons delineation based on identifying intervals between two three-month periods with extreme average temperatures was developed. In this model...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Russian meteorology and hydrology 2009-10, Vol.34 (10), p.670-679
Main Author: Prokopov, O. I.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric models
Atmospheric Sciences
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Meteorology
Oceans
Seasons
Spring
Variables
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Summary:To estimating the multiyear variability of thermal conditions in the spring and fall transitional seasons, an alternative model of the actual transitional seasons delineation based on identifying intervals between two three-month periods with extreme average temperatures was developed. In this model, probabilistic character of dates when the transitional periods start and their duration are taken into account relative the calendar year scale. Analysis of long-term data showed that possibility of the correct association of thermal conditions in the transitional seasons by using the usual approach (i.e., the seasons begin on March 1 and September 1) does not exceed 1.4%. The developed alternative model allows increasing this value up to 100%.
ISSN:1068-3739
1934-8096
DOI:10.3103/S1068373909100070