Permeability and Burglary Risk: Are Cul-de-Sacs Safer?

• Published in: Journal of quantitative criminology 2010-03, Vol.26 (1), p.89-111
• Main Authors: Johnson, Shane D., Bowers, Kate J.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Burglary; Connectivity; Crime; Crime patterns; Criminal justice; Criminals; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Cul de sacs; Law and Criminology; Methodology of the Social Sciences; Neighborhoods; Original Paper; Property crimes; Risk factors; Sociology; Statistics; Street crime; Urban crime
• ISSN: 0748-4518; 1573-7799
• DOI: 10.1007/s10940-009-9084-8

That crime is concentrated in space is now accepted as commonplace. Explanations for why it clusters at particular locations are various reflecting the range of factors which are held to influence crime placement. In this article, we focus on the role of the permeability of the street network on the location of crime. We first review the research conducted hitherto, summarising the different approaches to analysis and the findings that have so far emerged. Then we present original analyses conducted at the street segment level to examine the issues at hand. In contrast to much of the prior research, in this study we examine the patterns for a large study area in which there is considerable variation in street network configuration. Moreover, and in contrast to all of the previous research, the approach to analysis takes into account the multi-level structure of the data analysed. The findings demonstrate that increased permeability is associated with elevated burglary risk, that burglary risk is lower on cul-de-sacs (particularly those that are sinuous in nature), and that the risk of burglary is higher on more major roads and those street segments that are connected to them. In the conclusion of the paper we outline an agenda for future research.