The cell phone effect on motor vehicle fatality rates: A Bayesian and classical econometric evaluation

This paper examines the potential effect of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates normalized for other driving related and socioeconomic factors. The model used is non-linear so as to address both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones. The model is evaluated using classical met...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Transportation research. Part E, Logistics and transportation review Logistics and transportation review, 2010-11, Vol.46 (6), p.1140-1147
Main Authors: Fowles, Richard, Loeb, Peter D., Clarke, Wm. A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayesian analysis
Bayesian econometric models
Cell phones
Cellular telephones
Econometrics
Fatalities
Lifesaving
Motor vehicle fatality rates
Motor vehicle fatality rates Cell phones Bayesian econometric models
Socioeconomic factors
Studies
Traffic accidents & safety
Vehicles
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Summary:This paper examines the potential effect of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates normalized for other driving related and socioeconomic factors. The model used is non-linear so as to address both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones. The model is evaluated using classical methods along with Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA). The use of both classical and Bayesian methods diminishes the model and parameter uncertainties which afflict more conventional modeling methods which rely on only one of the two methods. The results indicate the presence of both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates depending on the volume of cell phone subscribers in existence.
ISSN:1366-5545
1878-5794
DOI:10.1016/j.tre.2010.02.001