Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98

Climate variability in the Indian Ocean region seems to be, in some aspects, independent of forcing by external phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. But the extent to which, and how, internal coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics determine the state of the Indian Ocean system have not bee...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature (London) 1999-09, Vol.401 (6751), p.356-360
Main Authors: Webster, Peter J, Moore, Andrew M, Loschnigg, Johannes P, Leben, Robert R
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmosphere
Climate
Climate system
Climate variability
Dynamical systems
Dynamics
Earth, ocean, space
El Nino
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Humanities and Social Sciences
Indian Ocean
letter
Marine
Meteorology
multidisciplinary
Ocean-atmosphere interaction
Oceanography
Oceans
Pacific Ocean
Physics of the oceans
Precipitation
Science
Sea surface temperature
Sea-air exchange processes
Southern Oscillation
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Summary:Climate variability in the Indian Ocean region seems to be, in some aspects, independent of forcing by external phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. But the extent to which, and how, internal coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics determine the state of the Indian Ocean system have not been resolved. Here we present a detailed analysis of the strong seasonal anomalies in sea surface temperatures, sea surface heights, precipitation and winds that occurred in the Indian Ocean region in 1997-98, and compare the results with the record of Indian Ocean climate variability over the past 40 years. We conclude that the 1997-98 anomalies-in spite of the coincidence with the strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation event-may primarily be an expression of internal dynamics, rather than a direct response to external influences. We propose a mechanism of ocean-atmosphere interaction governing the 1997-98 event that may represent a characteristic internal mode of the Indian Ocean climate system. In the Pacific Ocean, the identification of such a mode has led to successful predictions of El Niño; if the proposed Indian Ocean internal mode proves to be robust, there may be a similar potential for predictability of climate in the Indian Ocean region.
ISSN:0028-0836
1476-4687
DOI:10.1038/43848