Efficient joint-probability methods for hurricane surge frequency analysis

The Joint-Probability Method (JPM) was adopted by federal agencies for critical post-Katrina determinations of hurricane surge frequencies. In standard JPM implementations, it is necessary to consider a very large number of combinations of storm parameters, and each such combination (or synthetic st...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Ocean engineering 2010, Vol.37 (1), p.125-134
Main Authors: Toro, Gabriel R., Resio, Donald T., Divoky, David, Niedoroda, Alan Wm, Reed, Chris
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Computation
Computer simulation
Flood insurance maps
Hurricane
Hurricanes
Joint-probability method
Katrina
Marine
Mathematical models
Numerical methods
Ocean engineering
Probabilistic methods
Sampling
Storm surge
Storms
Surges
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Summary:The Joint-Probability Method (JPM) was adopted by federal agencies for critical post-Katrina determinations of hurricane surge frequencies. In standard JPM implementations, it is necessary to consider a very large number of combinations of storm parameters, and each such combination (or synthetic storm) requires the simulation of wind, waves, and surge. The tools used to model the wave and surge phenomena have improved greatly in recent years, but this improvement and the use of very large high-resolution grids have made the computations both time-consuming and expensive. In order to ease the computational burden, two independent approaches have been developed to reduce the number of storm surge simulations that are required. Both of these so-called JPM-OS (JPM-Optimal Sampling) methods seek to accurately cover the entire storm parameter space through optimum selection of a small number of parameter values so as to minimize the number of required storm simulations. Tests done for the Mississippi coast showed that the accuracy of the two methods is comparable to that of a full JPM analysis, with a reduction of an order of magnitude or more in the computational effort.
ISSN:0029-8018
1873-5258
DOI:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2009.09.004