Determinants of constitutional change: Why do countries change their form of government?

• Published in: Journal of Comparative Economics 2010-09, Vol.38 (3), p.283-305
• Main Authors: Hayo, Bernd, Voigt, Stefan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Constitution; Constitutional change; Constitutional change Institutional dynamics Form of government Endogenous constitutions Separation of powers; Constitutional reform; Democracy; Economics; Endogenous constitutions; Form of government; Government; Governmental reform; Institutional change; Institutional dynamics; Political economy; Political science; Political systems; Politics; Separation of powers
• ISSN: 0147-5967; 1095-7227
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2010.07.007

► Geography and former colonial status affect the timing of constitutional changes. ► Presidential systems are more likely to survive than parliamentary ones. ► The Form of government is changed due to domestic political factors. ► Constitutional reforms are affected by social conflicts and form of political system. A country’s form of government has important economic and political consequences, but the determinants that lead countries to choose either parliamentary or presidential systems are largely unexplored. This paper studies this choice by analyzing the factors that make countries switch from parliamentary to presidential systems (or vice versa). The analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we identify the survival probability of the existing form of government (drawing on a proportional hazard model). In our model, which is based on 169 countries, we find that geographical factors and former colonial status are important determinants of survival probability. Also, presidential systems are, ceteris paribus, more likely to survive than parliamentary ones. Second, given that a change has taken place, we identify the underlying reasons based on panel data logit models. We find that domestic political factors are more important than economic ones. The most important factors relate to intermediate internal armed conflict, sectarian political participation, degree of democratization, and party competition, as well as the extent to which knowledge resources are distributed among the members of society.