Bayesian Estimation of Disease Prevalence and the Parameters of Diagnostic Tests in the Absence of a Gold Standard

It is common in population screening surveys or in the investigation of new diagnostic tests to have results from one or more tests investigating the same condition or disease, none of which can be considered a gold standard. For example, two methods often used in population-based surveys for estima...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:American journal of epidemiology 1995-02, Vol.141 (3), p.263-272
Main Authors: Joseph, Lawrence, Gyorkos, Theresa W., Coupal, Louis
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayes Theorem
Biological and medical sciences
Cambodia - epidemiology
Cambodia - ethnology
diagnostic tests
Diagnostic Tests, Routine
Epidemiologic Methods
Epidemiology
False Negative Reactions
False Positive Reactions
General aspects
Humans
Medical sciences
Methodology
Monte Carlo Method
Prevalence
Public health. Hygiene
Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine
Quebec
Reference Standards
Refugees
routine
sensitivity
Sensitivity and Specificity
specificity
statistical
Strongyloidiasis - diagnosis
Strongyloidiasis - epidemiology
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Summary:It is common in population screening surveys or in the investigation of new diagnostic tests to have results from one or more tests investigating the same condition or disease, none of which can be considered a gold standard. For example, two methods often used in population-based surveys for estimating the prevalence of a parasitic or other infection are stool examinations and serologic testing. However, it is known that results from stool examinations generally underestimate the prevalence, while serology generally results in overestimation. Using a Bayesian approach, simultaneous inferences about the population prevalence and the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of each diagnostic test are possible. The methods presented here can be applied to each test separately or to two or more tests combined. Marginal posterior densities of all parameters are estimated using the Gibbs sampler. The techniques are applied to the estimation of the prevalence of Strongyloides infection and to the investigation of the diagnostic test properties of stool examinations and serologic testing, using data from a survey of all Cambodian refugees who arrived in Montreal, Canada, during an 8-month period.
ISSN:0002-9262
1476-6256
DOI:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a117428