Assessing a Methodology for Physician Requirement Forecasting: Replication of GMENAC's Need-Based Model for the Pediatric Specialty

Methodologies for determining levels of U.S. physician requirement are as complex as they are controversial. One long-standing controversy surrounds the advantages of an epidemiologic need-based forecasting model over an economic demand-based model. This paper examines the need-based requirement app...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Medical care 1987-05, Vol.25 (5), p.426-436
Main Authors: Weiner, Jonathan P., Steinwachs, Donald M., Shapiro, Sam, Coltin, Kathryn L., Ershoff, Dan, O'Connor, J. Paul
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Boston
California
Child
Delphi Technique
Economic models
Forecasting
Forecasting models
Health maintenance organizations
Health Maintenance Organizations - statistics & numerical data
Health Services Needs and Demand - trends
Health Services Research - trends
Human resources
Humans
Medical practice
Minnesota
Models, Theoretical
Normativity
Parametric models
Patient care
Pediatrics
Physicians
United States
Workforce
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Methodologies for determining levels of U.S. physician requirement are as complex as they are controversial. One long-standing controversy surrounds the advantages of an epidemiologic need-based forecasting model over an economic demand-based model. This paper examines the need-based requirement approach as recently developed by the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC). This approach is assessed for the pediatric specialty by replicating the original model using data derived from three large HMOs. These data were empirically obtained from the computerized visit records of more than 10,000 children at each of the three plans and normatively from Delphi panels consisting of pediatric practitioners at those same sites. Results indicate that if U.S. pediatrician requirement was estimated on the basis of HMO practice data, rather than GMENAC's national ideals, fewer physicians would be needed. The pediatric requirement based on local Delphi panel judgments was lower still, due in great part to the suggestion of increased delegation rates to nonphysician providers. Implications of this comparative analysis for the GMENAC need-based methodology and future physician requirement modeling efforts are discussed.
ISSN:0025-7079
1537-1948
DOI:10.1097/00005650-198705000-00006