Natural History of Adenocarcinoma-Large Cell Carcinoma of the Lung: Conclusions From Screening Programs in New York and Baltimore

A mathematical model of the progression kinetics of lung cancer was described and used to shed light on the natural history of adenocarcinoma and large cell carcinoma of lung from data collected in screening studies of male smokers by the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and The Johns Hopkins...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:JNCI : Journal of the National Cancer Institute 1988-05, Vol.80 (5), p.337-344
Main Authors: Flehinger, Betty J., Kimmel, Marek, Melamed, Myron R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adenocarcinoma - diagnosis
Adenocarcinoma - mortality
Adenocarcinoma - therapy
Biological and medical sciences
Carcinoma, Small Cell - diagnosis
Carcinoma, Small Cell - mortality
Carcinoma, Small Cell - therapy
Clinical Trials as Topic
Humans
Lung Neoplasms - diagnosis
Lung Neoplasms - mortality
Lung Neoplasms - therapy
Male
Medical sciences
Models, Biological
Pneumology
Probability
Radiography, Thoracic
Time Factors
Tumors of the respiratory system and mediastinum
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Summary:A mathematical model of the progression kinetics of lung cancer was described and used to shed light on the natural history of adenocarcinoma and large cell carcinoma of lung from data collected in screening studies of male smokers by the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and The Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions. In both programs, estimates of the mean duration of early-stage adenocarcinoma or large cell carcinoma of lung ranged upward from 4 years, and estimates of the probability of detecting it in early-stage disease ranged downward from .16. The probabilities of curing early-stage disease through surgical treatment were found to be at most .52 and .13 in the New York and Baltimore studies, respectively. These estimates led to the conclusion that expected reduction in mortality from adenocarcinoma and large cell carcinoma of lung as due to annual x-ray screening from age 45 to 80 years is not greater than 18% in New York and 5% in Baltimore.
ISSN:0027-8874
1460-2105
DOI:10.1093/jnci/80.5.337