Discrete distributions when modeling the disability severity score of motor victims

Many European countries apply score systems to evaluate the disability severity of non-fatal motor victims under the law of third-party liability. The score is a non-negative integer with an upper bound at 100 that increases with severity. It may be automatically converted into financial terms and t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Accident analysis and prevention 2010-11, Vol.42 (6), p.2041-2049
Main Authors: Boucher, Jean-Philippe, Santolino, Miguel
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accidents, Traffic - prevention & control
Accidents, Traffic - statistics & numerical data
Databases, Factual
Disability Evaluation
Disability rating scale
Female
Generalized method of moments
Humans
Hurdle discrete data models
Male
Models, Statistical
Personal injuries
Poisson Distribution
Regression Analysis
Sex Factors
Spain
Wounds and Injuries - diagnosis
Wounds and Injuries - epidemiology
Wounds and Injuries - prevention & control
Zero-inflated distribution
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Summary:Many European countries apply score systems to evaluate the disability severity of non-fatal motor victims under the law of third-party liability. The score is a non-negative integer with an upper bound at 100 that increases with severity. It may be automatically converted into financial terms and thus also reflects the compensation cost for disability. In this paper, standard and zero-altered discrete regression models are applied to model the disability severity score of victims. An application using data from Spain is provided in which the hurdle-Negative Binomial regression was the preferred method. The effects of victims’ characteristics, type of road user and recovery duration are examined. The results suggest that the expected permanent disability severity is higher for older women with long recovery periods. The results provide traffic decision makers with a model to quantify the compensation cost savings due to disability severity reductions.
ISSN:0001-4575
1879-2057
DOI:10.1016/j.aap.2010.06.015