Choosing Sample Sizes to Maximize Expected Health Benefits Subject to a Constraint on Total Trial Costs

The authors present a method for choosing sample sizes for randomized controlled trials that maximizes expected health benefits (measured in expected discounted life years gained) subject to the decision maker's budget constraint. In comparison with similar approaches, the method introduces ric...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Medical decision making 1989-01, Vol.9 (1), p.14-25
Main Authors: Baker, Stuart G., Heidenberger, Kurt
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayes Theorem
Clinical Trials as Topic - economics
Colorectal Neoplasms - prevention & control
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Decision Making, Organizational
Decision Trees
Humans
Random Allocation
Research Design
Sampling Studies
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Summary:The authors present a method for choosing sample sizes for randomized controlled trials that maximizes expected health benefits (measured in expected discounted life years gained) subject to the decision maker's budget constraint. In comparison with similar approaches, the method introduces richer and more realistic models for the following quantities: costs and benefits during and after the trial, rates of adopting interventions after a positive rec ommendation, the distribution of data collected in the trial, and the decision to make a positive recommendation based on the results of the trial. Although the methodology is applicable to any type of trial, the emphasis in the paper is on prevention trials. Calculations involve Monte Carlo methods. An example is provided.
ISSN:0272-989X
1552-681X
DOI:10.1177/0272989X8900900104