Analysis of uncertainties in regional climate model outputs over the Czech Republic

In this study we present results of uncertainty analysis in eight regional climate model (RCM) outputs over the area of the Czech Republic. The RCM simulations come from the EU 5th Framework program project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate ch...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Studia geophysica et geodaetica 2010-07, Vol.54 (3), p.513-528
Main Authors: Holtanová, Eva, Kalvová, Jaroslava, Mikšovský, Jiří, Pišoft, Petr, Motl, Martin
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air temperature
Atmospheric models
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate change
Climate models
Comparative studies
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environmental risk
Geophysics/Geodesy
Global climate
Simulation
Structural Geology
Uncertainty
Variance analysis
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Summary:In this study we present results of uncertainty analysis in eight regional climate model (RCM) outputs over the area of the Czech Republic. The RCM simulations come from the EU 5th Framework program project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Using the analysis of variance we have found that the main source of uncertainty in projected changes of mean seasonal air temperature is the driving global climate model. In case of precipitation changes, the RCM is the largest source of uncertainty in all seasons except for the spring. With the second method, the Reliability Averaging method, we have focused on the uncertainty coming from the RCM itself. The results of both methods showed that the relative contribution of the regional climate model to the uncertainty of simulated mean seasonal air temperature and precipitation changes is largest in summer and smallest in winter.
ISSN:0039-3169
1573-1626
DOI:10.1007/s11200-010-0030-x