Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting

Different studies provide a surprisingly large variety of controversial conclusions about the forecasting power of an indicator, even when it is supposed to forecast the same time series. In this study, we aim to provide a thorough overview of linear forecasting techniques and draw conclusions usefu...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:CESifo economic studies 2010-06, Vol.56 (2), p.192-220
Main Authors: Robinzonov, Nikolay, Wohlrabe, Klaus
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Benchmarking
Economic forecasting
Economic indicators
Economic models
Economic theory
Forecasting techniques
Forecasts
Germany
Indicators
Industrial production
Macroeconomics
Modelling
Time series
Western Europe
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Summary:Different studies provide a surprisingly large variety of controversial conclusions about the forecasting power of an indicator, even when it is supposed to forecast the same time series. In this study, we aim to provide a thorough overview of linear forecasting techniques and draw conclusions useful for the identification of the predictive relationship between leading indicators and time series. In a case study for Germany, we forecast two possible representations of industrial production. Further on we consider a large variety of time-varying specifications. In a horse race with nine leading indicators plus an AR benchmark model, we demonstrate the variance of assessment across target variables and forecasting settings (50 per horizon). We show that it is nearly always possible to find situations in which one indicator proved to have better predicting power compared with another. Nevertheless, the freedom of choice can be useful to identify robust leading indicators. (JEL codes: C52, C53, E37) Copyright The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.
ISSN:1610-241X
1612-7501
DOI:10.1093/cesifo/ifp019