Is Russia Succeeding in Central Asia?

• Published in: Orbis (Philadelphia) 2010, Vol.54 (4), p.615-629
• Main Authors: Spechler, Martin C., Spechler, Dina R.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Central Asia; Foreign policy; Foreign relations; International relations; International status; Leadership; Ministers (Political); Nostalgia; Peoples Republic of China; Political influences; Political leadership; Post-communist societies; Power relations; Presidents; Regional politics; Russia; Russian Federation; Television; Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
• ISSN: 0030-4387; 1873-5282
• DOI: 10.1016/j.orbis.2010.07.008

On a number of recent occasions, the top Russian leadership has expressed its special interest in the affairs of former Soviet republics, including the assertion that Russia has a “privileged” relationship with these now independent states. 1 1 On Russian Channel One television on August 31, 2008, President Dmitri Medvedev referred to his country's “privileged interests” [ privilegirovannie interesi] in unspecified regions, similar to other countries’ special interests. In his summary for the Diplomatic Yearbook for 2008 Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov “mutually privileged relations” based on “cultural/civilizational unity” with all the countries of the CIS, but specifically denied that this amounted to a “sphere of influence.” Cf. Dmitri Trenin, “Russia's Spheres of Interest, not Influence,” The Washington Quarterly, October 2009. Is this a claim of accomplished fact, of future intention, or perhaps an empty expression of nostalgia for lost status? As we see it, the record of Russian actions in the largest group of these states—the five of Central Asia—allows us to exclude the first and question whether the second is realizable. Russia must contend with the aspirations of those states themselves, as well as the determined interests of China and, to a lesser extent, the West.