Modelling urban-rural population growth in China

"The population of China is still growing despite a dramatic decline in fertility in the past two decades. There are marked urban-rural differentials in fertility and, as a result, the pace of urbanization has significant effects on population growth. In this research an attempt is made to mode...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environment and planning. A 1996-08, Vol.28 (8), p.1417-1444
Main Authors: SHEN, J, SPENCE, N.A
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Asia
Bgi / Prodig
China
Demography
Developing Countries
Emigration and Immigration
Far East
Fertility
Forecasting
Geography
Human geography
Modelling
Models, Theoretical
Population
Population Characteristics
Population Dynamics
Population Growth
Rural Population
Statistics as Topic
Urban Population
Urbanization
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Summary:"The population of China is still growing despite a dramatic decline in fertility in the past two decades. There are marked urban-rural differentials in fertility and, as a result, the pace of urbanization has significant effects on population growth. In this research an attempt is made to model urban-rural population growth in China. A demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors is calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China... An accounts-based urban-rural population model, in which rural to urban migration and transition are driven by the foregoing demoeconomic model, is established... These models are used to make urban-rural population projections for the period 1988-2087 under various fertility rate assumptions."
ISSN:0308-518X
1472-3409
DOI:10.1068/a281417