PLURALISTIC IGNORANCE AND THE CLIMATE OF OPINION IN A REAL-TIME DISASTER PREDICTION

This study employed a four-fold typology of opinion groups depicting the relationships between minority–majority status and accurate–inaccurate perception of the climate of opinion about the 1990 prediction of a destructive earthquake for the mid-United States New Madrid Seismic Zone. Data were coll...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of public opinion research 1997-07, Vol.9 (2), p.170-190
Main Author: Major, Ann Marie
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Disaster Preparedness
Disasters
Earthquake prediction
Earthquakes
Emergency preparedness
Environmental conditions
Forecasts
Knowledge
Mass Media Effects
Natural Disasters
Pluralism
Prediction
Predictions
Public Opinion
United States
Weather forecasting
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Summary:This study employed a four-fold typology of opinion groups depicting the relationships between minority–majority status and accurate–inaccurate perception of the climate of opinion about the 1990 prediction of a destructive earthquake for the mid-United States New Madrid Seismic Zone. Data were collected from 629 residents of the area where the earthquake was predicted to occur. Two frameworks were employed to define the climate of opinion to take into account two key variables that influence public response to earthquake predictions: the predication's believability and its importance. Accurate perceptions of the climate of opinion were differntiated from inaccurate perceptions based on more frequent media use and the confidence respondents felt about protecting themselves from potential earthquake damages. Inaccurate perceptions of the climate of opinion are differentiated not by more extensive media use and discussions, but by the crediability placed on the information from the news media and discussions, as well as the perceived influence of these information sources.
ISSN:0954-2892
1471-6909
DOI:10.1093/ijpor/9.2.170