Exploring the Causes of Forced Migration: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis, 1971-1990

This paper (1) develops a theoretical model of refugee migration that builds on existing research in early warning and preventive diplomacy, and (2) empirically tests this model in order to assess the role played by generalized structural factors in the formation of forced migration. Methods. I regr...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Social science quarterly 1997-06, Vol.78 (2), p.284-308
Main Author: Schmeidl, Susanne
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
1971-1990
Causes
Civil war
Civil wars
Economic Factors
Environmental refugees
Forced
Forced migration
Genocide
Human migration
Immigrants
Immigration
International migration
International Relations
Migration
Migration Patterns
MIGRATION, IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION
MODELING, MODELS
Political conditions
Political Factors
Political migration
Political violence
Population growth
Rebellion
Refugees
Social Factors
SOCIAL SCIENCES
The Patterns
Time series
VIOLENCE
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Summary:This paper (1) develops a theoretical model of refugee migration that builds on existing research in early warning and preventive diplomacy, and (2) empirically tests this model in order to assess the role played by generalized structural factors in the formation of forced migration. Methods. I regress the number of refugees on several political, economic, and intervening variables, using pooled time-series analysis over a twenty-year period (1971-1990). Refugee data come from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the U.S. Committee for Refugees (USCR). Results. The results suggest that, first, measures of institutional human rights violations have weaker predictive power than do measures of generalized violence. Second, civil wars with foreign military interventions are more important in producing large refugee populations and prolonged migrations than are civil wars without outside influence. Third, ethnic rebellion is important as a cause of small refugee migrations, but cannot significantly predict mass exodus. Finally, economic and intervening variables have little impact on predicting refugee migration. Conclusions. These findings contradict the argument that economic hardship is a very important cause of refugee migration. In addition, they support the argument that the level and type of violence determine the likelihood and size of refugee displacement.
ISSN:0038-4941
1540-6237