Richardson, Rationality, and Restrictive Models of Arms Races

Richardson's simple arms race model inspired an extensive (and still growing) body of research by scholars in many disciplines. Unfortunately, much of this work follows Richardson's lead by paying scant attention to domestic politics and decision-making processes. Despite the use of increa...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Journal of conflict resolution 1991-09, Vol.35 (3), p.443-473
Main Author: McGinnis, Michael D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
ARMS CONTROL
Arms Race
Arms races
Conflict resolution
Economic models
Financial budgets
International politics
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
L.F. Richardson
METHODOLOGICAL CONCEPTS
Military defense
Military spending
Military theory
Military weapons
Modeling
MODELING, MODELS
POLITICAL SCIENCE
POLITICAL SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
Rational Decision
Rationality
Toy models
War
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Summary:Richardson's simple arms race model inspired an extensive (and still growing) body of research by scholars in many disciplines. Unfortunately, much of this work follows Richardson's lead by paying scant attention to domestic politics and decision-making processes. Despite the use of increasingly sophisticated formal models, empirical measures, and statistical methods, progress has been stymied by continued reliance on rigid models and literal interpretations of statistical tests, especially regarding the relative potency of external and internal factors. A new approach to modeling is required if we are to understand the underlying dynamics of resource allocation that sustain an arms race. The author argues that the substantive complexities of arms rivalries can be implicitly encompassed by simple rational models considerably less restrictive than Richardson's model.
ISSN:0022-0027
1552-8766
DOI:10.1177/0022002791035003003