Forecast of lake volume and salt concentration in Lake Chapala, Mexico

Using historical hydrological information and water quality records, an early warning system was developed to forecast short- and long-term trends in water level changes and volume-dependent major ion concentrations for Lake Chapala, Mexico. The developed tool allows one to forecast yearly minimum l...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Aquatic sciences 2004, Vol.66 (3), p.257-265
Main Authors: VAN AFFERDEN, Manfred, HANSEN, Anne M
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animal and plant ecology
Animal, plant and microbial ecology
Biological and medical sciences
Drinking water
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Evaporation
Exact sciences and technology
Fresh water ecosystems
Freshwater
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Hydrology
Hydrology. Hydrogeology
Lake evaporation
Lakes
Synecology
Water levels
Water quality
Water resources
Water storage
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Summary:Using historical hydrological information and water quality records, an early warning system was developed to forecast short- and long-term trends in water level changes and volume-dependent major ion concentrations for Lake Chapala, Mexico. The developed tool allows one to forecast yearly minimum lake-water volumes with a 90% probability and less than plus or minus 5% error. The long-term behavior of lake volume and its trend towards a new equilibrium was estimated by a second empirical approach, where water storage variations were calculated by estimating changes in total lake evaporation losses due to variations in lake area. Available historical water quality records were analyzed and, by applying subsequent statistical data filtration, volume and time dependent trends in major ion concentrations were established. Mass and charge balances were applied to complete the data-sets with concentrations of ions that are not measured during ordinary monitoring. Concerning water quality regulations, minimum lake volumes were proposed to guarantee the intactness of this important drinking water resource. Despite the uncertainties of these approaches, the early warning system presented provides a useful tool for short and long-term prediction of lake water storage and quality that may support management decisions related to the whole watershed.
ISSN:1015-1621
1420-9055
DOI:10.1007/s00027-004-0694-9