THE GRADUATION OF AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES BY ORDER OF BIRTH OF CHILD

• Published in: Human biology 1967-02, Vol.39 (1), p.53-64
• Main Author: MAZUR, D. PETER
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Age; Age groups; Aged (see also Aging, Geriatric); Birth; Birth Order; Birth/Births; Childbirth; Demography; Female; Female fertility; Fertility; Fertility rates; Graduations; Humans; Maternal Age; Mathematics/Mathematical; Middle Aged; Models, Theoretical; Pregnancy; Statistics as Topic; Women
• ISSN: 0018-7143; 1534-6617

This report is concerned with mathematical concepts in the approach to fertility rates for those situations where basic data are scant and erratic. It should therefore be of special interest for work on most of the non-industrialized regions where censuses are not as yet administered efficiently. A general solution to the problem of graduating age-order specific fertility rates is presented here in the form of equations applicable to data situations where only the rates of total fertility by order of birth of child are available, or where the data are gathered in very broad age categories. Theoretical considerations presuppose knowledge of certain basic parameters such as, the initial, terminal, and modal age of fertility in a population of women. The graduation of rates to any desired degree of specificity by age of woman and up to the sixth and higher orders of birth can best be done on the basis of period specific rates and, under certain conditions, with generational measures. In addition, the model can serve as an heuristic device from which deviations in actual data can be measured. The results of graduation are illustrated numerically on the basis of the natality data for Guatemala, as reported in the United Nations Demographic Yearbook.