Very short-term wind speed prediction: A new artificial neural network–Markov chain model

As the objective of this study, artificial neural network (ANN) and Markov chain (MC) are used to develop a new ANN–MC model for forecasting wind speed in very short-term time scale. For prediction of very short-term wind speed in a few seconds in the future, data patterns for short-term (about an h...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energy conversion and management 2011, Vol.52 (1), p.738-745
Main Authors: Pourmousavi Kani, S.A., Ardehali, M.M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Artificial neural network
Artificial neural networks
Chains
Direct power generation
Energy
Exact sciences and technology
Learning theory
Management
Markov chain approach
Mathematical models
Natural energy
Neural networks
Very short-term prediction
Wind energy
Wind speed
Wind speed prediction
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Summary:As the objective of this study, artificial neural network (ANN) and Markov chain (MC) are used to develop a new ANN–MC model for forecasting wind speed in very short-term time scale. For prediction of very short-term wind speed in a few seconds in the future, data patterns for short-term (about an hour) and very short-term (about minutes or seconds) recorded prior to current time are considered. In this study, the short-term patterns in wind speed data are captured by ANN and the long-term patterns are considered utilizing MC approach and four neighborhood indices. The results are validated and the effectiveness of the new ANN–MC model is demonstrated. It is found that the prediction errors can be decreased, while the uncertainty of the predictions and calculation time are reduced.
ISSN:0196-8904
1879-2227
DOI:10.1016/j.enconman.2010.07.053