New evidence of anti-herding of oil-price forecasters

We used the oil-price forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters published by the European Central Bank to analyze whether oil-price forecasters herd or anti-herd. Oil-price forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the c...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energy economics 2010-11, Vol.32 (6), p.1456-1459
Main Authors: Pierdzioch, Christian, Rülke, Jan Christoph, Stadtmann, Georg
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Banks
Crude oil prices
Economic data
Economics
Empirical analysis
Empirical research
Energy
Energy economics
Estimation bias
Exact sciences and technology
Forecasting
Forecasting techniques
Forecasts
Fossil fuels and derived products
General, economic and professional studies
Herding
Investment policy
Methodology. Modelling
Oil
Oil price
Oil price Forecasting Herding
Studies
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Summary:We used the oil-price forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters published by the European Central Bank to analyze whether oil-price forecasters herd or anti-herd. Oil-price forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. Based on a new empirical test developed by Bernhardt et al. (J. Financ. Econ. 80: 657–675, 2006), we found strong evidence of anti-herding among oil-price forecasters.
ISSN:0140-9883
1873-6181
DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2010.05.014